I'd like to shank the Academy

Here are the bets I'm placing on the Oscars this year at Tradesports.com. I made a killing last year shorting Brokeback and I'm looking to repeat. (Note that these were the odds at the time I placed them and have changed by the time you read this, probably in my favor.)

Best Picture: The Departed (pays 2:1) is undervalued. It's a lock, despite Scorcese's recent win for The Aviator and my lonely belief that it sucked.

Director: Clint Eastwood (pays 12:1). Scorcese leads here, but Academy voters like to split their votes, and I think Clint has a chance especially considering the impressive successive release of two Oscar-level films in 12 months.

Actress: Helen Mirren is considered a sure thing, but I'm not so sure. How many Academy voters actually saw The Queen and know who she is? I wouldn't be surprised if Meryl Streep won by default, but I think Judy Dench and Kate Winslet have a chance, and now that Penelope Cruz has finally made a great movie, I'm shorting Mirren (pays 10:1 if any of them beat her).

Supporting Actor: Mark Wahlberg (30:1 odds). Sure, Eddie Murphy and Alan Arkin are more likely to win, but Marky Mark's wacky performance in The Departed is just the sort of thing Academy voters go for. 30:1 is a steal.

Supporting Actress: behind Jennifer Hudson (4:3 odds) is Rinko Kikuchi (12:1 odds). I think Hudson will win, but I'll take Kikuchi for the long shot.

Actor: Forest Whitaker is paying 5:4 odds, and I think that's actually a good buy, since none of the other nominees--with the possible exception of Leonardo DiCaprio--has a chance. But I think Leo is where voters' Departed fatigue will set in, and they'll skip this award for it.

By the way, Hillary is at 4:1 odds to win the presidency, and Al Gore is at 10:1 odds to win the nomination. Two overvalued possibilities; two shorting opportunities!